Moving from 53.1 in the prior month to 56.3 in the most recent reading, the current conditions component expanded in December, marking the third consecutive month in which it gained strength. Nearly a third of survey respondents reported “better” conditions in December, with 50 percent noting that the business environment remained “unchanged” from the previous month. Mixed, but largely positive, views of economic conditions were tempered somewhat by reports of stagnant to slowing orders activity along with geopolitical concerns.  EBCI results 202312nm

Please note that survey responses were collected from the period of November 14-27, 2023.

The current conditions index not only remained in expansionary territory, but it also strengthened marginally, ticking up from 52.8 in the prior month to 53.1 in November. One-quarter of responding panel members reported “better” conditions in November compared to October’s environment. Although the share of responses noting “unchanged” conditions dropped, it still remained the majority experience. Some comments pointed to continued robustness, but the overall tenor of the commentary may be best summarized by one member’s note suggesting “Slowing in some segments, steady in others. Not growing heading into the end of the year.”  EBCI results 202311nm

For the first time since February 2023, the current conditions component broke into expansionary territory as October’s reading hit 52.8 points. The proportion of respondents reporting “better” conditions actually declined in October, compared to the previous month, but panel members indicating “unchanged” conditions leapt to a 72 percent share. Comments revealed solid growth in sectors bolstered by the electrification movement, as well as in construction related to data centers, power, and industrial. However, some commenters shared concerns about unstable geopolitics and deteriorating financial conditions, with one reporting a slowdown in orders.  EBCI results 202310nm

In September, the current conditions component settled at 50 points for the second consecutive month. The 29 percent share of respondents that reported “better” conditions exactly matched those noting “worse” conditions, for a net result of unchanged from the prior month. Panel members’ comments suggested sectors such as power utility, industrial, data center, and infrastructure remained strong, but excess inventories, “sporadic supply chain issues,” and slowing orders activity were notable concerns.  EBCI results 202309nm

The August current conditions index landed at 50, suggesting unchanged conditions from July. The last time the index clearly broke through to expansionary territory was February 2023, implying that the post- lockdown boom is in the rearview mirror. Less than one-fifth of survey respondents indicated facing “worse” conditions in August while a solid majority, 63 percent, noted that conditions remained “unchanged” from the prior month. Comments revealed mixed sentiment, with one panel member reporting “pushback on terms,” while another mentioned strong investment in some markets alongside soft residential and commercial segments.  EBCI results 202308nm

The current conditions component has not shown evidence of sustained growth since early 2022. After settling on the threshold value of 50 points last month, the current gauge once again slipped in July, dropping seven points to 42.9, signaling "worse" conditions overall compared to June. Although reports of "unchanged" conditions remained the most common response, the share of panel members indicating "worse" conditions jumped to nearly 30 percent of all responses in July. Despite this month's underwater reading, some bright spots emerged in the comments with reports of strength in markets such as infrastructure and utility upgrades. However, commenters also pointed out cautionary notes such as reports of customers' future spending plans being put on hold, slowing demand in some segments, and "over inventoried positions being worked down."  EBCI results 202307nm

Rebounding from its post-lockdown low of 40 points in May, the current conditions component leapt 10 point to a score of 50 in June. At 50 points, the current component suggests unchanged conditions compared to the prior month, which is unsurprising since 86 percent of respondents reported “unchanged” conditions in June. Comments largely reflected the quantitative measure, with some supporting the sense of status quo, along with a sprinkling of positive sentiment such as “new orders steady,” mixed with less upbeat assessments: “some slowdown continues in commercial and residential segments.”  EBCI results 202306nm

Dipping to its lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of the lockdown era recession, the current conditions component shed 3 points from April’s score to hit 40.0 this month. The share of respondents indicating “unchanged” conditions reached 53 percent, and less than 15 percent of May’s panelists noted “better” conditions. In some cases, reports of unchanged conditions may have reflected a sense of healthy markets remaining so: “order intake has increased vs Q4 2022 and is on par with Q1 2023.” The main concerns pointing to worsened conditions included distributor destocking and worries about the debt ceiling.  EBCI results 202305nm

After a momentary bump into expansionary territory in February, followed by a brief hold at “unchanged” last month, the current conditions component signaled cooling in April with a nearly 7-point retreat to 43.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions declined precipitously this month, and although several respondents noted “better” conditions, many more indicated that conditions were “worse” in April. Comments displayed evidence of this dichotomy as one described “slowing demand across most… segments,” even as another declared “records and more records.”  EBCI results 202304nm

The current conditions component’s move into expansionary territory was unambiguous last month for the first time in almost a year as it hit 63.3 points. That surge of confidence was short-lived, with March’s reading falling back to 50, suggesting that conditions were unchanged from the prior month. The share of respondents who indicated “better” conditions declined significantly to a level on par with those who reported “worse” conditions. Much of the commentary supported the numerical result, with many noting mixed conditions to include overall strong business activity but softening in certain end markets becoming noticeable and concern about supply chain issues still in play.  EBCI results 202303nm

After spending nearly all of 2022 in unchanged or even contractionary territory, the current conditions component improved dramatically just two months into 2023 as the February reading added 17 points to January’s score to reach 63.3. The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions remained the majority position in the latest iteration, but fully one-third of respondents indicated “better” conditions in February, which help push the current metric into the growth range for the first time since last April. The move toward electrification and infrastructure investments, as illustrated in one comment that described “strong continued demand in EV, utility, and data centers,” played a role as did strong orders activity and easing supply chain pressures.  EBCI results 202302nm

In 2022, the current conditions component showed expansionary signals only twice, last breaking into growth territory in April. The December reading of 50, which signaled unchanged conditions from the previous month, teased the possibility of an expansionary environment ahead, but January’s score slid back to 46.4, indicating a modest slowdown. More than three-quarters of respondents noted “unchanged” conditions, and just seven percent reported that the business environment had gotten “better,” compared to the prior month. Comments pointed to some degree of turbulence facing electrical manufacturers, with softness in residential and industrial markets but strong demand elsewhere and orders backlogs that remain stable.   EBCI results 202301nm